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If the fund loses 40 percent of its value or $40,000 over the course of a year, the value of the account is now $60,000 ($100,000 – $40,000 = $60,000). 40) = $60,000 + $24,000 = $84,000], more than 16 percent and $16,000 below where the account began. Additionally, since the value of the assets is still well below their initial value, it will take another 19 percent return over the next year or two just to regain the last $16,000 lost in year 1. For a young investor with 20 more years to recapture the loss, such an event will potentially be smoothed out over time.
Exhibit 2-12 gives the specific numbers for each of the strategies pictured in Exhibits 2-10 and 2-11. There are a variety of similar models that only invest in sectors that are upward trending while moving some assets to cash when the general trend of the overall market is downward trending. For example, one model looks at all sectors that are fundamentally and technically bullish. Each sector is given a ranking, and then assets are divided among those sectors based on Sector Rotation Equity Curve (Aggressive Model) $10,000,000 Aggressive Sector Performance $1,622,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 Buy and Hold $18,000 Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 01 S&P 500 Benchmark Jan 99 Jan 98 Jan 97 Jan 96 Jan 95 Jan 94 Jan 93 Sector Rotation Equity Jan 92 Jan 91 Jan 90 Jan 89 Jan 88 $1,000 Jan 87 $5,000 Starting Equity Jan 00 $10,000 EXHIBIT 2-11 *Note: Back testing (or walk-forward testing as we call it when it is done properly) is still no guarantee of future results.
In markets that are more volatile rather than steadily trending in one direction, profit is often made on both sides. The strong stocks can go up in price while the weak stocks in the same sector go down. Analysis, both fundamental and technical, can be done on a daily basis, or specific criteria can be set whereby changes to the portfolio are made. In any case, the resultant decision making may be daily, weekly, monthly, or longer. Depending on the parameters used to build each sector matrix, the models may be anticipating the changes in each sector or following the changes in each sector.