By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson
Uncertainty research is a key part of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised by way of the authors during this quantity, and the position that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock methods, compliance and verification concerns, and the position of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.
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Extra info for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading
Which approach is more stringent? 04 a Emission reductions for compliance assumed to be 7% below baseline level. b Confidence that actual emission reductions equal at least 90% of estimated reductions. , 1998 (in Table 1) is the same as the uncertainty of the emission reductions (in Table 2), then the fractional adjustments are much larger under Definition 1 (in Table 1) than under Definition 2 (Table 2), because in the former case the definition focuses on the absolute level of emissions, which is a much larger number than the absolute reduction in emissions (the focus of the latter definition).
Focusing on emission reductions, rather than on emissions, is one way of accomplishing this. In particular, we can argue that it is more important to ask whether or not we have reduced emissions (and, in the case of the Kyoto Protocol, achieved the emission reductions to which countries Definition 2 Achieving Emission Reductions: Achieve a reasonable level of confidence that countries have actually achieved the emission reductions, measured relative to base-year emissions, stated in their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and are in compliance.
Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these goals precisely in terms of relationships among important variables (such as emissions estimate, commitment level, or statistical confidence); and (3) develop a quantifiable adjustment mechanism that reflects these environmental goals.